基于ARIMA模型的我国人口数量的统计分析与预测

doi:10.16039/j.cnki.cn22-1249.2023.05.016

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摘要

运用描述性统计和时间序列分析法对我国人口数量及其相关指标，包括人口出生率、人口死亡率等指标进行统计分析和预测，分别得出ARIMA模型，并预测2017年至2022年指标数据，对比真实值显示模型效果较好。为国家制定相关人口政策提供依据。

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关键词: 描述性统计时间序列分析出生率死亡率人口数量

Abstract:

In this paper, descriptive statistics and time series analysis are used to analyze and forecast the population of China and its related indicators, including birth rate, death rate and so on. The ARIMA models are obtained respectively, and the index data from 2017 to 2022 are predicted. Compared with the real value, the models show better effect. The basis for the national formulation of relevant population policies is provided.

Key words: descriptive statistics time series analysis birth rate death rate population

出版日期: 2023-05-25 发布日期: 2023-05-25 整期出版日期: 2023-05-25

O212.4

引用本文:

王燕飞吴珊.

基于ARIMA模型的我国人口数量的统计分析与预测

[J]. 吉林化工学院学报, 2023, 40(5): 85-90.
WANG Yanfei, Wu Shan. Statistical Analysis and Prediction of the Population of China Based on ARIMA Model . Journal of Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology, 2023, 40(5): 85-90.

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https://xuebao.jlict.edu.cn/CN/10.16039/j.cnki.cn22-1249.2023.05.016 或 https://xuebao.jlict.edu.cn/CN/Y2023/V40/I5/85

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