基于GA-BP神经网络的短期负荷预测
孟亚男,高思航** ,张心人境** ,周雪阳**
吉林化工学院 信息与控制工程学院,吉林 吉林 132022
Optimize Short-term Load Prediction of BP Neural Network based on Genetic Algorithm
MENG YaNan1 ,GAO Sihang1 ,ZHANG XinRenJing1 ,ZHOU XueYang1
摘要
以供热系统为研究对象,针对集中供热热负荷中由于温度因素、随机因素、以及建筑本身因素等问题导致预测精度不高。因此提出了采用BP神经网络算法来进行预测,它对具有非线性的模型有很好的控制效果,并且可以进行自我学习。但由于BP神经网络的波动较大,比较容易出现局部优化现象,因此在使用BP神经网络的基础上进行改进,将BP神经网络与遗传优化算法相结合,弥补BP神经网络的不足。最后通过仿真实验结果表明热负荷预测的误差大大减少,预测精度提高,继而实现合理供热。
关键词:
BP网络
负荷预测
遗传算法
Abstract:
In this paper, the heating system is used as a research object, and the prediction accuracy is not high due to temperature factors, random factors, and factors of the building itself in the central heating heat load. Therefore, this paper proposes to use the BP neural network algorithm for prediction, which has a good control effect on models with nonlinearity and can learn itself. However, due to the large fluctuation of BP neural network, local optimization phenomenon is relatively easy to occur.Therefore, on the basis of using BP neural network, the BP neural network and genetic optimization algorithm are improved and combined to make up for the deficiency of BP neural network. Finally, simulation experiments show that the error of heat loads prediction is greatly reduced,the prediction accuracy is improved, and reasonable heat supply is realized.
Key words:
back propagation neural network
load forecasting
genetic algorithm
出版日期: 2022-03-25
发布日期: 2022-03-25
整期出版日期: 2022-03-25
引用本文:
孟亚男, 高思航, 张心人境, 周雪阳.
基于GA-BP神经网络的短期负荷预测
[J]. 吉林化工学院学报, 2022, 39(3): 66-69.
MENG YaNan, GAO Sihang, ZHANG XinRenJing, ZHOU XueYang.
Optimize Short-term Load Prediction of BP Neural Network based on Genetic Algorithm
. Journal of Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology, 2022, 39(3): 66-69.
链接本文:
http://xuebao.jlict.edu.cn/CN/10.16039/j.cnki.cn22-1249.2022.03.013
或
http://xuebao.jlict.edu.cn/CN/Y2022/V39/I3/66
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