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吉林化工学院学报, 2023, 40(7): 71-76     https://doi.org/10.16039/j.cnki.cn22-1249.2023.07.013
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基于模糊认知图和粒计算的长期风速区间预测研究
李乾鑫1** ,张胜杰3,于天暝2*
1.吉林化工学院 信息与控制工程学院,吉林 吉林 132022; 2.东北电力大学 自动化工程学院 吉林 吉林 132011; 3.凯特智能控制技术有限公司 山东 潍坊261000
Research on Long-term Wind Speed Interval Prediction based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Granular Computing
LI Qianxin1** ,ZHANG Shengjie3 ,YU Tianming2*
1.School of Information and Control Engineering, Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology, Jilin City132022,China; 2.School of Automation Engineering, Northeast Electric Power University, Jilin City10188,China; 3.KETR Industry Control Corporation, Weifang 261000, China
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摘要 

长期风速预测是许多领域的重要研究课题,包括电力市场结构调整、能源管理和风电场优化设计。然而,仅靠精确的数值不足以完全描述长期风速预测的变化趋势。相反,区间变化和语义可以提供更全面的长期风速预测信息。本文针对数值预测风速变化的弊端,提出一个混合预测模型,该模型结合了模糊认知图和粒计算进行预测。具体为先运用粒计算对数据颗粒化,然后使用模糊认知图对处理后的数据进行预测。通过与BP神经网络对比,仿真实验表明所提算法在预测区间值和语义表现出更好的性能。这项研究强调了将区间变化和语义表达纳入长期风速预测的重要性,所提出的模型可以作为风能行业相关者的决策工具。

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李乾鑫
张胜杰
于天暝
关键词:  模糊认知图  粒计算  BP神经网络  风速区间预测     
Abstract: 

Long-term wind speed forecasting is an important research topic in many fields, including power market restructuring, energy management, and wind farm optimal design. However, precise values alone are not enough to fully describe the changing trend of long-term wind speed forecasts. In contrast, interval variation and semantics can provide more comprehensive long-term wind speed forecast information. Aiming at the drawbacks of numerical forecasting of wind speed changes, this paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that combines fuzzy cognitive maps and granular computing for forecasting. Specifically, the granular computing is used to granulate the data, and then the fuzzy cognitive map is used to predict the processed data. Compared with BP neural network, simulation experiments show that the proposed algorithm shows better performance in predicting interval values and semantics. This study highlights the importance of incorporating interval variation and semantic representation into long-term wind speed forecasts, and the proposed model can serve as a decision-making tool for wind energy industry stakeholders.

Key words:  fuzzy cognitive maps    granular computing    BP neural network    wind speed interval prediction
               出版日期:  2023-07-25      发布日期:  2023-07-25      整期出版日期:  2023-07-25
ZTFLH:  TP18  
引用本文:    
李乾鑫 , 张胜杰, 于天暝. 基于模糊认知图和粒计算的长期风速区间预测研究 [J]. 吉林化工学院学报, 2023, 40(7): 71-76.
LI Qianxin , ZHANG Shengjie , YU Tianming. Research on Long-term Wind Speed Interval Prediction based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Granular Computing . Journal of Jilin Institute of Chemical Technology, 2023, 40(7): 71-76.
链接本文:  
http://xuebao.jlict.edu.cn/CN/10.16039/j.cnki.cn22-1249.2023.07.013  或          http://xuebao.jlict.edu.cn/CN/Y2023/V40/I7/71
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